In this guide
With the 2028 US presidential election still more than two years away, prediction markets are already actively pricing candidates across both parties, from Republican succession scenarios following Trump's constitutional ineligibility to Democratic primary matchups. Traders who spot undervalued positions early can capitalise before the candidate pool consolidates.
Republican 2028 Presidential Market
Trump's third-term bar leaves the Republican nomination genuinely contested:
- J.D. Vance: ~25-30% — Vice-presidential incumbency advantage, aligned with Trump's base
- Ron DeSantis: ~15-20% — Florida governor's approval ratings, recovery after 2024 primary setback
- Nikki Haley: ~12-15% — Centre-right coalition appeal, international relations experience
- Glenn Youngkin: ~7-10% — Two-term Virginia executive, private-sector track record
- Josh Hawley: ~5-8% — Anti-establishment economic messaging
- Unknown candidate: ~15-20% — Sufficient breadth for fresh contenders to emerge
Democratic 2028 Presidential Market
- Kamala Harris: ~20-25% — Leading position, party establishment backing
- Pete Buttigieg: ~12-15% — Cabinet-level prominence as Transportation Secretary
- Gavin Newsom: ~10-13% — California's chief executive, established national presence
- Josh Shapiro: ~8-12% — Governor of crucial Pennsylvania swing state
- Unknown candidate: ~25-30% — Sufficient time horizon for unexpected challengers
2028 General Election Probabilities
- Republican wins presidency 2028: ~48-52% (virtually balanced at this stage)
- Democrat wins presidency 2028: ~48-52%
Why Trade 2028 Markets Now
Early 2028 markets provide:
- Greater volatility (heightened ambiguity translates to larger profit opportunities for prescient bets)
- Extended holding periods as new information gradually reshapes market assessments
- Chance to acquire candidates at lower odds before breakthrough moments drive valuations upward
Drawback: nascent markets react sharply to surprise announcements and candidate decisions to enter or withdraw.
FAQ
- Can a sitting VP (Vance) win the Republican nomination?
- Historical precedent shows VPs have strong but uncertain paths. Bush Sr (1988) succeeded Reagan; Gore fell short in 2000. Markets currently treat Vance as leading contender without overwhelming dominance.
- When do 2028 nomination markets resolve?
- Republican and Democratic nomination contracts settle following each party's summer convention — anticipated for July/August 2028.
- Are there markets for specific primary states?
- Iowa and New Hampshire primary contracts usually become available 6-12 months ahead of voting — explore PolyGram's political markets catalogue for availability.