In this guide
With the 2028 US presidential election still more than two years away, prediction markets are already establishing prices across the field, including Republican succession prospects following Trump's constitutional ineligibility and Democratic primary matchups gaining momentum. Traders who spot undervalued positions early stand to benefit substantially once the candidate roster solidifies.
Republican 2028 Presidential Market
Trump's third-term prohibition leaves the Republican nomination wide open for competition:
- J.D. Vance: ~25-30% — Vice-presidential incumbency advantage, ideological alignment with Trump
- Ron DeSantis: ~15-20% — Gubernatorial approval ratings, recovery trajectory after 2024 setback
- Nikki Haley: ~12-15% — Centrist positioning, international relations expertise
- Glenn Youngkin: ~7-10% — Two-term Virginia governor with strong approval, entrepreneurial credentials
- Josh Hawley: ~5-8% — Pro-worker economic messaging resonance
- Unknown candidate: ~15-20% — Sufficient breadth in the field to accommodate emerging figures
Democratic 2028 Presidential Market
- Kamala Harris: ~20-25% — Presumptive favourite, party establishment backing
- Pete Buttigieg: ~12-15% — Cabinet-level prominence as Transportation Secretary
- Gavin Newsom: ~10-13% — California's chief executive, established national presence
- Josh Shapiro: ~8-12% — Governor of pivotal Pennsylvania, swing-state appeal
- Unknown candidate: ~25-30% — Sufficient temporal distance permits fresh contenders to emerge
2028 General Election Probabilities
- Republican wins presidency 2028: ~48-52% (statistically equivalent to a toss-up at this preliminary stage)
- Democrat wins presidency 2028: ~48-52%
Why Trade 2028 Markets Now
Engaging with 2028 markets at this juncture provides:
- Greater volatility (heightened uncertainty translates to amplified profit opportunities for prescient positioning)
- Extended holding periods as fresh information reshapes market valuations
- Chance to accumulate positions in candidates before catalytic announcements drive up their valuations
Caveat: nascent markets exhibit heightened susceptibility to surprise developments and shifts in candidate participation.
FAQ
- Can a sitting VP (Vance) win the Republican nomination?
- Precedent shows vice presidents often secure nominations but face no certainty. George H.W. Bush succeeded Ronald Reagan in 1988; Al Gore's 2000 bid fell short. Prediction markets currently position Vance as the leading contender whilst acknowledging meaningful competitive risk.
- When do 2028 nomination markets resolve?
- Both Republican and Democratic nomination markets settle following conclusion of their respective national conventions — customarily occurring in July or August 2028.
- Are there markets for specific primary states?
- Dedicated markets for the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary typically commence 6-12 months ahead of those contests — consult PolyGram's political markets catalogue for current availability.