Verdict: Polymarket dominates in terms of trading depth and market selection. Kalshi offers the only federally regulated route for American participants. Manifold provides entertainment-focused forecasting using virtual currency instead of real funds. Throughout Europe and beyond, Polymarket accessed through PolyGram represents the optimal choice.
Prediction markets have surged in adoption throughout 2024 and into 2025. This guide examines how the leading platforms stack up against one another.
Polymarket — The Liquidity Leader
| Liquidity | $1.5B+ annual volume. Most substantial markets in political events and digital assets |
| Markets | Over 1,000 ongoing markets. Elections, blockchain, athletics, research breakthroughs, entertainment |
| Fees | No platform fee. Bid-ask spreads range from 1-3 cents |
| Currency | USDC via Polygon network (blockchain wallet needed) |
| Access | Worldwide (excluding United States). Identity verification required |
| Best for | Professional forecasters seeking competitive advantage |
Kalshi — US-Regulated Alternative
Kalshi stands as America's sole CFTC-authorised prediction market platform. It welcomes US-based participants who cannot access Polymarket and has expanded substantially. Trade-offs include narrower market selection relative to Polymarket, plus regulatory constraints that prevent certain market categories from launching.
Manifold Markets — Social Prediction
Manifold operates using virtual currency ("mana") instead of actual cash. This platform excels for honing forecasting abilities and participating in crowd-sourced predictions — though it lacks financial incentives for serious traders. The ecosystem hosts more than 10,000 user-generated prediction events.
Metaculus — Forecasting Platform
Metaculus collects probability estimates from its specialist community. Participants earn no monetary rewards, yet the system provides valuable opportunities to establish forecasting credentials and specialise in world events. Academic institutions frequently reference its data when studying forecast reliability.
Betfair — The Legacy Exchange
Betfair pioneered the betting exchange model and processes billions annually across sports and political outcomes. Strengths include fiat payment options, FCA oversight, and substantial sports market depth. Drawbacks: charges 2-5% on net profits, excludes digital asset markets, and provides less political market breadth than Polymarket.
Our Recommendation for 2025
For participants outside the US seeking maximum trading liquidity and broadest market coverage: Polymarket via PolyGram. PolyGram simplifies blockchain requirements whilst connecting you to Polymarket's complete order book. Start trading on PolyGram →