In this guide
Verdict: Polymarket dominates in terms of trading depth and breadth of available markets. Kalshi stands out as the preferred choice for those in the United States seeking regulatory compliance. Manifold excels for casual forecasters interested in community-driven markets without financial stakes. Across Europe and beyond, Polymarket accessed through PolyGram represents the optimal solution.
The sector of prediction markets has witnessed remarkable growth throughout 2024. This guide breaks down how the leading platforms stack up in 2025.
Polymarket — The Liquidity Leader
| Liquidity | Over $1.5B in yearly trading volume. Most active order books for political and cryptocurrency-related contracts |
| Markets | 1,000+ live contracts spanning politics, digital assets, athletics, research, and entertainment |
| Fees | No platform fee. Bid-ask spreads range from 1 to 3 cents |
| Currency | USDC settlement on Polygon blockchain (cryptocurrency wallet required) |
| Access | Worldwide availability excluding United States. Identity verification mandatory |
| Best for | Professional participants possessing analytical advantages |
Kalshi — US-Regulated Alternative
Kalshi holds the distinction of being America's sole CFTC-authorised prediction market. It provides an avenue for US-based participants (who cannot access Polymarket) and has expanded substantially. Trade-offs include a narrower selection of available markets relative to Polymarket, and stringent US regulatory frameworks that restrict certain contract categories.
Manifold Markets — Social Prediction
Manifold operates using virtual currency ("mana") rather than actual funds. It serves as an excellent resource for honing forecasting abilities and collaborative market prediction — yet lacks appeal for those seeking monetary returns. The platform hosts more than 10,000 user-generated contracts.
Metaculus — Forecasting Platform
Metaculus functions as an aggregator of probability estimates contributed by forecasting specialists. While it does not involve monetary transactions, it excels at enabling users to establish forecasting credentials and specialises in international affairs prediction. The platform enjoys recognition in scholarly studies examining forecast reliability.
Betfair — The Legacy Exchange
Betfair represents the pioneering betting exchange, processing hundreds of billions across athletics and electoral contracts annually. Strengths include conventional payment methods, FCA oversight, and robust athletics market depth. Limitations encompass 2-5% charges on net gains, absence of blockchain-based assets, and comparatively restricted political market scope versus Polymarket.
Our Recommendation for 2025
For participants outside the US seeking maximum market depth and comprehensive contract selection: Polymarket through PolyGram. PolyGram streamlines blockchain requirements while granting unrestricted access to Polymarket's complete trading infrastructure. Start trading on PolyGram →