In this guide
Verdict: Polymarket dominates in terms of trading depth and breadth of available markets. Kalshi stands out as the sole regulatory-approved option for American participants. Manifold excels for recreational forecasting without financial stakes. Throughout Europe and beyond, Polymarket accessed through PolyGram represents the optimal choice.
The prediction market sector has surged dramatically throughout 2024 and into 2025. This guide examines how the leading platforms stack up against one another.
Polymarket — The Liquidity Leader
| Liquidity | $1.5B+ annual volume. Deepest markets on politics, crypto |
| Markets | 1,000+ active. Politics, crypto, sports, science, culture |
| Fees | 0% house edge. Spread typically 1-3 cents |
| Currency | USDC on Polygon (crypto required) |
| Access | Global (ex US). KYC required |
| Best for | Serious traders with information edge |
Kalshi — US-Regulated Alternative
Kalshi holds the distinction of being America's sole CFTC-approved prediction market operator. It welcomes US-based traders who cannot access Polymarket and has expanded substantially in recent years. Trade-offs include a narrower selection of available markets relative to Polymarket, and stringent US regulatory constraints that exclude numerous market categories.
Manifold Markets — Social Prediction
Manifold operates using fictional currency ("mana") instead of actual funds. This platform serves as an excellent resource for honing forecasting abilities and engaging with community-driven predictions — yet it remains unsuitable for those seeking monetary returns. The ecosystem encompasses more than 10,000 user-generated markets.
Metaculus — Forecasting Platform
Metaculus functions as an aggregator of forecasts from its specialist community, collecting probabilistic estimates without involving real capital. Though financial rewards are absent, the platform excels at enabling users to establish forecasting credentials and analyse complex global scenarios. Its methodology has earned recognition in scholarly literature examining forecast quality.
Betfair — The Legacy Exchange
Betfair represents the established betting exchange model, processing substantial annual turnover across sports and electoral markets. Strengths include conventional currency support, FCA authorisation, and robust sports market depth. Limitations encompass a 2-5% commission structure applied to net profits, absence of digital asset categories, and comparatively restricted political market coverage relative to Polymarket.
Our Recommendation for 2025
For participants across Europe and worldwide seeking maximum trading liquidity alongside the most comprehensive market selection: Polymarket via PolyGram. PolyGram streamlines the technical barriers associated with blockchain whilst providing full access to Polymarket's complete market ecosystem. Start trading on PolyGram →