In this guide
Key takeaway: Polymarket is a decentralised prediction market where participants acquire YES/NO shares tied to real-world events using USDC on the Polygon blockchain. Automated smart contracts manage all settlement processes.
What is Polymarket fundamentally? Polymarket functions as a decentralised prediction marketplace: rather than wagering against a bookmaker's built-in edge, you exchange positions with fellow traders holding opposing views. Market prices continuously evolve to mirror the aggregate probability assessment held by the trading community — shifting instantly as fresh information emerges.
The basics: prediction markets
Prediction markets enable you to purchase shares representing specific outcomes. Each share delivers a $1 payout when an event settles YES, or nothing if it settles NO. Should you acquire a YES share for 40 cents ($0.40), you're implicitly estimating a 40% likelihood of that outcome occurring. A correct prediction doubles your investment; an incorrect one forfeits your capital.
Polymarket operates differently from conventional bookmakers in that it imposes no margin (the "vig"). Market prices emerge entirely through the interplay of buyer and seller demand.
How Polymarket uses blockchain
Polymarket operates atop the Polygon blockchain (a layer-2 scaling solution layered above Ethereum). This architecture provides:
- Complete on-chain visibility and auditability of every transaction
- Automated execution of deposits, trading activity, and settlement via smart contracts
- Elimination of counterparty risk — Polymarket operators cannot seize assets or alter results
- Near-instantaneous settlement rather than multi-day clearance periods
USDC: the currency of Polymarket
Polymarket exclusively utilises USDC (USD Coin), a stablecoin maintaining a fixed 1:1 exchange rate with the US dollar. Your trading account remains insulated from cryptocurrency price fluctuations — 1 USDC perpetually equals $1 in value.
How markets resolve
Upon confirmation of an event's outcome, Polymarket employs the UMA Oracle (Universal Market Access) to finalise market settlements. An appointed "proposer" reports the result; a 2-hour challenge period follows; absent objections, settlement becomes binding. Should disputes arise, UMA token holders participate in a decentralised vote to determine the correct outcome.
Getting started on Polymarket
- Create an account — register via email and satisfy identity verification requirements
- Deposit USDC — fund your account through MoonPay, conventional banking, or existing cryptocurrency holdings
- Browse markets — explore offerings spanning elections, athletics, digital assets, entertainment and beyond
- Buy shares — select YES or NO and specify your investment amount
- Track and exit — liquidate your holdings whenever you choose prior to market resolution
PolyGram streamlines this workflow through a mobile-optimised platform and passwordless email authentication. Start trading on PolyGram →
Why Polymarket prices are accurate
Prediction markets have repeatedly demonstrated superior forecasting performance relative to conventional opinion surveys and specialist analysis. Throughout the 2024 US election cycle, Polymarket's probability assessments surpassed accuracy levels achieved by leading polling organisations. The mechanism driving this precision: financial incentives compel participants to form genuine, unbiased judgements.