In this guide
Prediction markets focused on science and technology draw participation from highly specialised individuals—laboratory scientists, software developers, and technology correspondents who can interpret complex technical breakthroughs with greater speed than the broader market audience. These venues provide substantial advantages to those with genuine expertise in their chosen domains.
Active Science & Technology Prediction Markets (2026)
Space Exploration
- SpaceX Starship reaches orbit with payload: ~72-78%
- Artemis Moon landing in 2026: ~35-42%
- SpaceX Mars mission launch before 2030: ~55-62%
- Commercial space station operational in 2026: ~28-34%
Artificial Intelligence
- AGI claimed by major lab before 2028: ~22-28%
- AI system passes ARC-AGI benchmark (100%): ~38-44%
- EU AI Act High-Risk classification of LLMs: ~62-68%
Biotechnology & Medicine
- CRISPR gene therapy approved for new indication in US: ~65-72%
- GLP-1 drug market exceeds $150B annual revenue: ~55-62%
- Alzheimer's treatment showing 50%+ disease modification: ~28-34%
Clean Energy
- Nuclear fusion net energy gain sustained for 60+ seconds: ~35-42%
- Global solar capacity exceeds 5 TW: ~65-70%
- Solid-state battery in commercial EV by major automaker: ~38-44%
Edge Sources in Science/Tech Markets
- Preprint servers (arXiv, bioRxiv): emerging research findings made available prior to formal peer review
- Patent filings: technological breakthroughs frequently show up in patent applications ahead of public announcements
- Regulatory pipeline: FDA, EMA approval schedules and timelines for pharmaceutical and biotech products
- Engineering conference presentations: public disclosures of strategic plans from SpaceX, NASA, and major technology firms
FAQ
- How do science prediction markets resolve?
- These markets settle based on objectively verifiable information: corporate announcements, scientific journals with peer review, official government regulatory decisions, or established news organisations (AP, Reuters).
- Are there niche science markets not listed on PolyGram?
- PolyGram features the most widely-followed science markets. Specialised or obscure topics often appear on Manifold Markets, which operates with play money and enables community-created prediction events.
- Do researchers trade prediction markets about their own field?
- They certainly do — and typically possess the strongest informational advantage. The views held by the scientific community (expressed at symposia and conferences) frequently move market expectations ahead of official announcements by several weeks.