In this guide
Prediction markets focused on science and technology draw participation from highly specialised individuals—academics, engineers, and technology writers who can evaluate technical breakthroughs with greater speed than mainstream market participants. These venues reward specialised knowledge and rigorous analysis.
Active Science & Technology Prediction Markets (2026)
Space Exploration
- SpaceX Starship reaches orbit with payload: ~72-78%
- Artemis Moon landing in 2026: ~35-42%
- SpaceX Mars mission launch before 2030: ~55-62%
- Commercial space station operational in 2026: ~28-34%
Artificial Intelligence
- AGI claimed by major lab before 2028: ~22-28%
- AI system passes ARC-AGI benchmark (100%): ~38-44%
- EU AI Act High-Risk classification of LLMs: ~62-68%
Biotechnology & Medicine
- CRISPR gene therapy approved for new indication in US: ~65-72%
- GLP-1 drug market exceeds $150B annual revenue: ~55-62%
- Alzheimer's treatment showing 50%+ disease modification: ~28-34%
Clean Energy
- Nuclear fusion net energy gain sustained for 60+ seconds: ~35-42%
- Global solar capacity exceeds 5 TW: ~65-70%
- Solid-state battery in commercial EV by major automaker: ~38-44%
Edge Sources in Science/Tech Markets
- Preprint servers (arXiv, bioRxiv): unpublished research findings available to the scientific community before formal peer review
- Patent filings: technological advances frequently show up in patent applications ahead of public announcements
- Regulatory pipeline: FDA, EMA approval schedules and decision timelines for pharmaceutical and biotech products
- Engineering conference presentations: public disclosures of strategic plans and technical roadmaps from SpaceX, NASA, and major technology firms
FAQ
- How do science prediction markets resolve?
- Resolution relies on independently verifiable information: company statements and announcements, articles in peer-reviewed journals, regulatory agency decisions, or coverage by established news organisations (AP, Reuters).
- Are there niche science markets not listed on PolyGram?
- PolyGram features the most widely-followed science markets. For more specialised or obscure topics, Manifold Markets (using play money) offers a broader selection of user-generated markets.
- Do researchers trade prediction markets about their own field?
- Absolutely—and they typically possess the strongest informational advantage. The views held by the research community (often expressed at academic gatherings) frequently move ahead of market prices by several weeks.