In this guide
What Is a Prediction Market?
A prediction market is a trading venue where participants exchange contracts whose value depends on whether specific future occurrences come to pass. The contract's market price represents an aggregated forecast from all active traders about the likelihood of that event materialising. PolyGram operates as a UK-accessible platform offering exposure to prediction markets spanning worldwide developments.
How Do Prediction Markets Work?
Every prediction market contract poses a straightforward question: does Event X occur before Date Y? Consider this illustration: "Will the Conservative Party secure victory in the forthcoming UK general election?" Two contract types exist for this scenario:
- YES: This contract settles at $1.00 should the Conservative Party prevail
- NO: This contract settles at $1.00 should the Conservative Party fail to prevail
Suppose the YES contract trades at $0.65; this indicates traders collectively assess a 65% chance of Conservative success. You may purchase YES if you believe the probability is higher, or NO if you reckon it's lower. Correct predictions yield gains; incorrect ones result in losses on your investment.
Prediction Markets vs Traditional Betting
- Absent overround: Traditional bookmakers embed profit margins into odds — prediction markets eliminate this. YES and NO prices combine to approximately $1.00
- Exit flexibility: You may close your position at any moment prior to the event resolving
- Full visibility: Market participants can access all pricing information and order book details openly
- Distributed intelligence: Thousands of independent traders contribute to price formation — typically surpassing the accuracy of surveys or expert opinion
Types of Prediction Markets
Political Markets
Contests for elected office, public confidence measurements, legislative outcomes, and shifts in leadership represent the sector's most actively traded and liquid categories on venues such as Polymarket.
Sports Markets
Game results, championship victors, individual performance metrics, and divisional standings.
Crypto Markets
BTC valuation milestones, blockchain improvements, cryptocurrency fund authorisations, and government intervention scenarios.
World Event Markets
Labour market figures, geophysical emergencies, technological breakthroughs, and cultural accolades.
Are Prediction Markets Legal in the UK?
The regulatory position of prediction markets within the United Kingdom remains ambiguous. The Gambling Commission has neither granted formal authorisation nor issued explicit prohibitions. Operators including PolyGram function through decentralised blockchain infrastructure, which operates under a fundamentally distinct framework from conventional gambling establishments.
How Accurate Are Prediction Markets?
Empirical research demonstrates that prediction markets consistently deliver superior forecasting performance relative to professional analysts and statistical polling methodologies. Polymarket's track record encompasses accurate calls on the 2024 US presidential election, numerous contests across the European continent, and significant cryptocurrency developments — often weeks or months ahead of conventional consensus.