Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

The US Department of Defence maintains a list of Chinese companies deemed to have military connections under Section 1260H of the 2021 National Defense Authorization Act. A "Yes" share in this market pays out if a specified company is fully removed from that roster by 30 June 2027; a "No" share pays out if the company remains listed. The list serves as a basis for investment restrictions and export controls affecting US entities' dealings with named firms. Currently, traders assign a 42% probability to removal within the settlement window—a meaningful but minority outcome.

Removals from the military companies list have been rare. Since the list's inception, the Department of Defence has made occasional adjustments, typically following diplomatic engagement or successful company appeals demonstrating changed circumstances or misclassification. The most comparable precedent involves companies delisted after providing evidence of severed military ties or correcting administrative errors in their original designation. However, the threshold for removal remains high, and the Trump and Biden administrations have both maintained a cautious stance toward delisting decisions, treating the designation as a durable enforcement tool rather than a provisional measure.

Traders should monitor announcements from the Department of Defence regarding list reviews, scheduled for periodic updates. Diplomatic developments between Washington and Beijing could shift removal likelihood, as could specific company petitions with supporting documentation. The Federal Register publishes official list amendments, which serve as the authoritative settlement source. Additionally, congressional scrutiny of delisting decisions has intensified, meaning any removal would likely face legislative scrutiny before finalisation.

Methodology

This page reviews Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.