Bitcoin above … on August 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

This market settles based on Bitcoin's price at precisely noon Eastern Time on 20 August 2026, using the one-minute candle close on Binance's BTC/USDT pair. A YES share pays out if that close exceeds the threshold price stated in the title; a NO share pays out if it falls at or below it. The current 100% implied probability suggests traders believe the threshold is set sufficiently low that Bitcoin will almost certainly trade above it at that moment.

Bitcoin's intraday volatility at any given hour typically ranges between 1–3% on Binance, though extreme moves can exceed this during major news events or market dislocations. Historical precedent shows that noon ET closures have not been materially different from other hourly snapshots; the time-of-day effect on BTC/USDT is negligible compared to broader directional momentum. A 100% crowd probability on an August 2026 settlement indicates either a very conservative threshold or high confidence in Bitcoin's longer-term price trajectory relative to the specified level.

Traders should monitor macroeconomic calendars for Federal Reserve communications and inflation data releases in the weeks preceding settlement, as these have historically driven Bitcoin volatility. Regulatory announcements from the SEC or CFTC regarding spot Bitcoin products, should they occur, could influence mid-term price direction. The specific noon ET timestamp removes intraday trading noise as a primary factor; the outcome depends on where Bitcoin trades during that single minute, making the resolution mechanical once the candle closes.

Methodology

We track Bitcoin above … on August 20? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.