Bitcoin price on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

At settlement, the market asks whether Bitcoin’s Binance 1-minute candle at 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time on the date in question lands inside the “YES” price band specified by the market rules; a **YES** share pays if it does, while a **NO** share pays if it does not. The key point for readers is that this is not a broad “is Bitcoin up or down?” bet, but a single-minute, single-exchange snapshot using Binance’s BTC/USDT **Close** price, so very short-lived moves around noon ET matter more than the wider daily trend.

Recent price data show Bitcoin trading in the low-to-mid $60,000s, with one live feed putting it around $62,622 and another near $64,241, alongside intraday ranges of roughly $62,453 to $63,095 and $61,977 to $63,064.[2][4][6][11] That leaves the current crowd-implied **0% YES** probability looking consistent with a market that is either far from the relevant bracket or unsure about the exact settlement band, even though Bitcoin has spent much of 2026 in a volatile but still historically high range.[8][16][17]

For traders, the main catalysts are scheduled macro and crypto-specific headlines that can move Bitcoin sharply into or out of a one-minute window: US economic releases, Federal Reserve commentary, ETF flow updates, and any sudden risk-off move from geopolitics or equities. A recent market note linked Bitcoin’s weakness to Middle East tensions and warned of a possible slide towards the high-$50,000s if support fails, which matters because a noon ET candle can be decided by a brief news-driven spike or sell-off rather than the day’s opening level.[10][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Bitcoin price on August 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.