Bitcoin price on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

This market resolves based on Bitcoin's price at noon Eastern Time on 17 August 2026, using the closing price from Binance's one-minute candle for the BTC/USDT pair. A YES share pays out if Bitcoin trades within a specific price bracket at that exact moment; a NO share pays out if it falls outside that bracket or if data cannot be retrieved. The settlement window closes at 16:00 UTC on that date, giving traders roughly eighteen months to assess how Bitcoin might move across macroeconomic cycles, regulatory shifts, and technological developments.

The 0% implied probability suggests the market is currently pricing in an outcome deemed extremely unlikely—either an exceptionally high or low price bracket, or one with structural barriers to resolution. Historical Bitcoin volatility offers context: the asset has moved between roughly $16,000 and $69,000 across the past five years, with single-day swings of 10–15% occurring during major news events. Comparable intraday snapshots are difficult to predict with precision, since even small market moves or exchange-specific liquidity conditions can shift the noon close by hundreds of dollars.

Traders monitoring this market should track regulatory announcements from the US Securities and Exchange Commission regarding spot Bitcoin ETFs, Federal Reserve policy decisions affecting risk appetite, and macroeconomic data releases scheduled near mid-August 2026. Geopolitical tensions, corporate adoption trends, and mining difficulty adjustments also influence longer-term price trajectories. The specificity of a single one-minute candle at a fixed time introduces additional noise: flash crashes, order-book imbalances, or trading halts on Binance could create outsized moves unrelated to fundamental value.

Methodology

We track Bitcoin price on August 17? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.