Bitcoin price on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

This market settles on the closing price of Bitcoin against the US dollar on Binance at noon Eastern Time on 28 July 2026. A YES share pays out if Bitcoin's price falls within a specific bracket (which the market description references but does not specify here); a NO share pays out if it does not. The resolution hinges on a single data point: the final price of the BTC/USDT pair on the 1-minute candle at that exact timestamp, sourced directly from Binance's public trading data.

The 0% implied probability suggests the market has not yet attracted sufficient liquidity or clarity around which price bracket constitutes a YES outcome. Historical Bitcoin volatility over comparable timeframes—say, 24-hour or weekly moves—typically ranges between 2–8%, though outlier days have exceeded 15%. With roughly 18 months until settlement, the underlying asset will experience numerous catalysts including US Federal Reserve policy announcements, macroeconomic data releases, and regulatory developments in major jurisdictions. Bitcoin's correlation with equity markets and risk sentiment has strengthened since 2020, making broader market conditions a material dependency.

Traders monitoring this market should track scheduled events: US inflation reports (typically mid-month), central bank meetings, and any legislative action on cryptocurrency regulation in the US or EU. Recent volatility spikes have often coincided with unexpected geopolitical events or sudden shifts in monetary policy expectations. The long settlement window means early positioning carries substantial carry risk, whilst late entry risks illiquidity if the market remains inactive.

Methodology

This page reviews Bitcoin price on July 28? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.