What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin would need to trade to a new high before the end of 2026 for a YES share to settle in the money. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the stated outcome happens and a NO share pays out if it does not, so the current 4% YES price implies the crowd sees a sub-10% chance of Bitcoin reaching the market’s threshold in time. That is notably cautious against a backdrop of still-elevated forecasts elsewhere: CoinCodex’s 2026 range is roughly $75,177 to $92,984, while Kraken’s simple growth model puts BTC at about $77,425 by May 2026 and around $80,065 in 2027. By contrast, Binance’s model shows a much wider June 2026 band, with an upper estimate above $115,000, and TheStreet recently reported Franklin Templeton sees Bitcoin recovering above $100,000 in 2026 even in its base case.

For traders, the main catalysts are the usual ones that can quickly shift the odds: spot ETF flows, Federal Reserve rate expectations, US inflation data, and any change in crypto-specific regulation or market structure. Bitcoin has already shown that round-number levels matter; commentary in crypto markets has repeatedly highlighted $80,000 as a key line, and a sustained break above it would matter more than a brief spike. The other point is the market’s settlement mechanics: this contract runs until 1 January 2027, so price needs to be at or above the specified level by then, not merely touched intraday and lost.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.