Bitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 1AM ET

Platform comparison

Market context

This market tracks whether Bitcoin's price on Binance will close higher than or equal to where it opened during a single hour beginning 20 August 2026 at 1am Eastern Time. A YES share pays out if the close price meets or exceeds the open price; a NO share pays out if the close price falls below the open. The settlement relies on the finalised 1-hour candlestick data from the BTC/USDT pair on Binance's platform, with resolution occurring at 6am ET the same day.

The 0% probability assigned to YES reflects the market's current assessment that Bitcoin will decline during this specific hour. Intraday hourly moves in Bitcoin are inherently volatile and difficult to predict with precision. Historical data shows that single-hour candles close higher roughly 50% of the time across neutral market conditions, though directional bias emerges during periods of significant news flow or macroeconomic announcements. The extreme confidence in a downward move suggests traders expect a specific catalyst or continuation of an established downtrend during that window.

Traders monitoring this market should track scheduled economic releases, Federal Reserve communications, or cryptocurrency-specific announcements in the hours preceding 1am ET on 20 August. Bitcoin's price action often responds sharply to US inflation data, employment reports, or statements from major institutions. Additionally, the broader cryptocurrency market sentiment—particularly movements in Ethereum and altcoins—frequently influences Bitcoin's intraday direction. Any unexpected geopolitical developments or regulatory announcements could shift the probability substantially in either direction before the settlement window closes.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.