Bitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 3AM ET

Platform comparison

Market context

This market settles based on whether Bitcoin's price on Binance (BTC/USDT pair) closes at or above its opening level during a single one-hour candle beginning at 3 AM ET on 20 August 2026. A YES share pays out if the close price ≥ open price; a NO share pays out if close < open. The current crowd probability of 0% YES suggests traders expect a price decline during that specific hour, though such extreme probabilities often reflect low liquidity or sparse trading activity rather than certainty.

Hourly Bitcoin movements historically exhibit high variance, with intraday candles closing higher roughly 48–52% of the time across major exchanges. This near-random distribution reflects Bitcoin's sensitivity to minute-by-minute order flow, leverage liquidations, and news releases. The 0% probability here is notably skewed and should be contextualised against the typical 50–50 split observed in historical data; such extremes often signal either a data lag, minimal participation, or a specific anticipated event.

Traders monitoring this market should track macroeconomic releases scheduled for 20 August 2026, Federal Reserve communications, and any significant cryptocurrency regulatory announcements that could trigger volatility during the settlement window. Bitcoin's price action in the hours preceding 3 AM ET will also matter; sustained downward momentum or a sharp sell-off beforehand could influence the probability of a lower close. Exchange-specific factors—including Binance's order book depth and any platform maintenance—may also affect the candle's final settlement values.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.