Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event at stake is whether the US Congress passes and the President signs the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 before the end of 2026. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if this law is enacted, while a NO share pays out if it fails; the current 38% price suggests traders see the outcome as unlikely but not impossible.

Historically, major US crypto market-structure bills face steep hurdles. The FIT21 bill, which similarly split jurisdiction between the SEC and CFTC, passed the House but stalled in the Senate despite bipartisan support [2]. The CLARITY Act has cleared the House and a key Senate Banking Committee vote, yet it still requires 60 Senate votes, reconciliation with any Senate version, and a presidential signature [2][5]. This multi-step path explains why the probability sits below 50%, as past attempts show that even advanced bills often fail at the final stages.

Traders should monitor the Senate Agriculture Committee’s version of the bill, the timing of a full Senate floor vote, and any public statements from the President or key senators on crypto regulation [2]. A recent industry tracker notes that reconciliation between House and Senate texts remains the critical dependency before a final vote [2]. Any delay in scheduling the Senate vote or signs of opposition from the 60-vote threshold could push the probability lower, while a smooth reconciliation and early floor scheduling would likely lift it.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.