Squid FDV above … one day after launch?

Platform comparison

Market context

Squid’s token will need to be live on a public market, and the market will settle on the token’s fully diluted valuation, meaning token price multiplied by total supply, measured at 4:00 pm ET on the day after launch. For someone new to prediction markets, a **YES** share pays out if that threshold is exceeded, while a **NO** share pays out if it is not, so the quoted price is the crowd’s estimate of the outcome rather than a forecast from one source.[3][7][8]

The current 96% YES pricing implies traders think a post-launch valuation above the strike level is very likely, but these markets often react sharply to launch mechanics, circulating supply assumptions and first-day liquidity. That is important because FDV can move well before sustained adoption is proven, and comparable Squid-related market pages have already shown traders anchoring on launch probability and on how quickly the token can attract exchange liquidity after debut.[4][6][8]

What matters most now is whether Squid actually launches an official token before the long-stop date, and whether that token is actively and publicly tradable at the measurement point. The market rules exclude stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens, so the key catalysts are an announcement of token generation, a confirmed trading venue, and any tokenomics details that determine total supply; without those, there is no qualifying launch and the market resolves **No** by default.[3][4][8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.