What price will Bitcoin hit on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin is trading around the mid-$65,000s, so this market is asking whether it will touch a specified price band during the settlement window rather than where it finishes the day. In prediction markets, a **YES** share pays out if the event happens at any point before settlement; a **NO** share pays if it does not. With the crowd-implied probability at 0% YES, traders are currently pricing the target as effectively unreachable within the window, which usually means either the level is far from spot or the market is treating the contract as a long shot.[2][3]

That reading is best understood against recent BTC forecast ranges, which cluster close to where price is already trading. Several 2026 models and prediction pages put Bitcoin near $65,000-$66,000 for 10 August, with broader year-end ranges stretching much higher, showing that short-dated path dependence matters more than long-run targets.[2][4][5][17] Polymarket’s related August price market also shows the heaviest weight around $64,000-$66,000, which is consistent with traders expecting congestion near current levels rather than a decisive break.[7]

The main catalysts are the usual Bitcoin-specific flows and any macro headlines that shift risk appetite. Traders will watch for spot ETF inflows or outflows, large exchange moves, and any scheduled US inflation or rates commentary that can move dollar liquidity and crypto sentiment; recent coverage has highlighted ETF flow watching and post-Fed positioning as the key August framework.[15][13] If Bitcoin is already near the strike zone, even a modest burst of volatility can matter because this contract only needs an intraday touch before the window closes, not a lasting close above the level.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews What price will Bitcoin hit on August 10? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.