What price will Bitcoin hit on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin's price movement on a single calendar day depends on macroeconomic announcements, regulatory developments, and market sentiment shifts that can occur within hours. On 11 August 2026, traders will be watching for US economic data releases, central bank communications, or geopolitical events that typically drive volatility in digital assets. The settlement window closes the following day, meaning any price action that occurs during the 11 August trading session—whether a spike, dip, or consolidation—will determine the outcome. A YES share pays out if Bitcoin reaches a specified price level on that date; a NO share pays out if it does not.

Historical precedent suggests single-day price targets for Bitcoin are difficult to predict with confidence. During 2021–2023, Bitcoin experienced daily swings of 5–15% driven by Federal Reserve announcements, inflation data, or major exchange events. The 0% crowd probability currently assigned to this market likely reflects either an extremely high price threshold set in the market terms, or widespread scepticism that Bitcoin will reach the target within a 24-hour window. Comparable markets on shorter timeframes have shown that even volatile assets rarely hit precise price levels on predetermined dates unless the threshold is set conservatively.

Traders should monitor the US economic calendar for 11 August 2026, including any employment or inflation releases scheduled for that week. Cryptocurrency-specific catalysts—such as major exchange announcements, regulatory filings, or institutional fund flows—can also move Bitcoin sharply. The current zero probability suggests the market consensus views the specified price as either unrealistic or extremely unlikely given historical volatility patterns.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.