What price will Bitcoin hit on August 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin's price action on a single day two years hence depends on macroeconomic conditions, regulatory announcements, and market sentiment that remain difficult to forecast with precision. A YES share in this market pays out if Bitcoin reaches a specific price threshold on 21 August 2026; a NO share pays out if it does not. The crowd currently assigns only 13% probability to a YES outcome, reflecting scepticism about Bitcoin hitting that particular level within the settlement window.

Historical volatility in Bitcoin's daily price swings offers context for interpreting this probability. Over the past decade, Bitcoin has experienced numerous single-day moves exceeding 10%, though such moves cluster around major news events—regulatory crackdowns, macroeconomic shocks, or shifts in institutional adoption. The 13% implied probability suggests traders view the target price as either substantially above or below Bitcoin's expected range on that date, or that the specificity of hitting it on exactly that day introduces meaningful execution risk. Comparable single-day price targets in cryptocurrency markets have typically traded at low probabilities unless anchored to announced events.

Traders monitoring this market should track Federal Reserve policy decisions, which influence risk appetite across digital assets, alongside any scheduled cryptocurrency regulation announcements from major jurisdictions. Bitcoin's correlation with equity markets and inflation expectations remains a primary driver of directional moves. Additionally, developments in institutional adoption—such as spot exchange-traded fund flows or corporate treasury allocations—can shift baseline price expectations. The two-year settlement window provides ample time for structural shifts in the cryptocurrency market, making near-term catalysts less predictive than longer-term macro positioning.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.