What price will Bitcoin hit on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin needs to trade through a specific price level by the market’s deadline, so a **YES** share pays out if that threshold is hit at any point in the settlement window and a **NO** share pays if it is not. With the crowd currently pricing **0% YES**, the market is effectively saying that, on present information, traders see the target as out of reach during the window ending 2026-08-07T04:00:00Z.

That reading is easier to understand against August’s usual pattern: several 2026 price forecasts clustered Bitcoin in the low- to mid-$60,000s, with some models warning of a dip towards roughly $58,000–$62,000 before any recovery, while other services still projected a broader $64,000–$70,000 band for the month.[1][6][8][12][15] In prediction markets, a near-zero price does not mean the event is impossible; it usually reflects a view that the required move is unlikely before the deadline, especially when the window is short and the trigger level is far from the current tape.[3][5]

Traders will watch whether Bitcoin can absorb macro and policy news without breaking lower, because August has both inflation data and Federal Reserve expectations in play, and one recent market note tied Bitcoin’s path to whether inflation cools enough to ease September rate-hike fears.[8] Crypto-specific flows also matter: a recent forecast highlighted ETF inflows, support around $60,000–$62,000, and a possible late-summer policy catalyst if the CLARITY Act advances before the August recess.[12] If spot Bitcoin stays below nearby resistance and the next news cycle is quiet, the market’s current 0% YES pricing is likely to remain anchored.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.