What price will Bitcoin hit on August 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin needs to reach a specified price at the market’s evaluation time on 7 August, and a **YES** share pays out if that level is hit, while **NO** pays out if it is not. In this contract, the outcome is tied to the Bitcoin spot price at the settlement time rather than where it closes for the day, so the key question is whether BTC prints the relevant level in the narrow window before settlement. [7]

The current **0% implied probability** suggests the crowd sees the threshold as very unlikely from the present price action. That is notable because published August 2026 forecasts and trader commentary cluster around the mid-$60,000s, with several ranges placing BTC around $61,000–$66,000 and identifying $64,000 as a key pivot, while more bullish calls only extend into the high-$60,000s. [1][2][9][11] In plain terms, prediction markets are pricing this as an outside-event outcome: for YES to win, Bitcoin would need a sharp move above the consensus range within hours, not just a gradual drift.

Traders will be watching U.S. macro releases and crypto-specific flow data. Recent market commentary has pointed to inflation data, Fed expectations, and ETF flows as the main drivers of short-term direction, while one August outlook also flagged the timing of the CLARITY Act before the 8 August recess as a possible volatility trigger. [9][11][13] Because the settlement window ends at 2026-08-08T04:00:00Z, any late-session move, headline on regulation, or abrupt shift in risk appetite can matter more than the broader weekly trend.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.