What price will Bitcoin hit on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin must trade at a specified level on 31 July for the **YES** side to pay out; if it finishes below that threshold, the **NO** side wins. In prediction-market terms, a YES share pays if the event happens and a NO share pays if it does not, so the current **0% YES** reading implies traders see that price target as effectively out of reach by the settlement point.

That scepticism is more understandable when set against recent market ranges and outside forecasts. Polymarket’s own July 31 event currently clusters outcomes in the mid-$60,000s, with the largest buckets at $64,000-$66,000 and $62,000-$64,000, while another market on Robinhood prices BTC at $64,100 or above at 99¢ and $64,300 or above at 8¢ for the same date.[8][6] Independent forecasts also point to wide dispersion rather than a clean breakout, with one machine-learning model averaging $60,013 by July 31 and another set of models spanning from $53,251 to $65,800.[1][2]

Traders should watch the final hours of price discovery, because this market settles on the Bitcoin price at a fixed timestamp rather than a broader monthly average. The main catalysts are usually macro headlines, spot-ETF flow updates, and any sudden moves in risk sentiment; a recent Yahoo Finance analysis said Bitcoin was likely to trade in a $56,000-$62,000 band into the month-end Federal Reserve meeting, with downside opening if support levels fail.[5] In practice, that means late-session volatility matters more than earlier July direction, especially if derivatives positioning or a single news shock pulls BTC sharply towards or away from the settlement band.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews What price will Bitcoin hit on July 31? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.