What price will Bitcoin hit on June 25?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 25 June 2026, the real-world event determining this market is the highest price Bitcoin reaches in US dollars during that calendar day. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the price hits the specified level, while a NO share pays out if it stays below; the current 3% crowd-implied probability for a YES outcome suggests traders believe a high price target is unlikely. This specific market closes its settlement window at 04:00 UTC on 26 June 2026, locking in the final price for resolution.

Historical patterns and recent forecasts frame how to interpret this low probability. Analysts from Changelly and CoinCodex project Bitcoin will trade between roughly $62,800 and $63,200 on 25 June 2026, with a bearish sentiment dominating the market as the Fear & Greed Index sits at 17, indicating extreme fear [1][2]. While some long-term models suggest a potential rise to $100,000 later in the year, the immediate technical outlook points to consolidation in the low $70,000 region without a confirmed breakout, making a sudden spike to a high target improbable [4].

Traders should monitor key catalysts including institutional ETF flows, which saw the largest monthly outflow in May 2026, potentially dampening near-term price momentum [8]. Additionally, upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and global M2 money supply data will be critical dependencies, as rising liquidity could alter the current bearish trajectory [7]. With Bitcoin currently trading near $62,700 and technical indicators signalling weakness, any shift in these macroeconomic schedules could be the primary driver for a price change before the settlement deadline [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.