What price will Bitcoin hit on June 29?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event this market settles on is the exact price of Bitcoin at midnight EDT on 29 June 2026, a single data point that determines whether a YES share pays out. In prediction markets, a YES share represents a bet that the stated outcome will occur; if the price matches the condition, the share settles at £1, otherwise it becomes worthless. A NO share is the opposite bet, profiting if the outcome fails. This specific market asks what price Bitcoin will hit on that date, with the settlement window closing at 04:00 UTC on 30 June 2026, and the crowd currently implying a 0% chance for the YES outcome.

Historical patterns show Bitcoin’s price has swung wildly, from an all-time high of $126,198 in October 2025 to lows near $60,074 in early 2026, with June 2025 seeing a drop to $17,708 during a crypto winter[5]. Recent data from June 2026 shows prices hovering around $63,000 to $67,000, down significantly from the prior year[1][2]. These comparable cases suggest that a 0% YES probability may reflect market scepticism that Bitcoin will surge above a specific threshold on 29 June, given its recent volatility and lack of a clear upward catalyst.

Traders should watch for US macroeconomic announcements, Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, and institutional adoption news, as these often drive crypto prices. A recent YouTube analysis cites an economic model predicting $444,000 by mid-2026 due to institutional adoption and shrinking tradable supply, though this remains speculative[4]. The next Bitcoin halving is set for March or April 2028, meaning no supply shock is imminent[5]. With prices currently near $60,000 to $67,000[1][2][9], the market’s 0% YES probability likely hinges on whether any major announcement can push Bitcoin significantly higher before the settlement deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.