What price will Ethereum hit on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ethereum has to reach the specific price threshold by the market’s settlement time on 2 August, and a **YES** share pays out if that level is hit while a **NO** share pays out if it is not. With the settlement window ending at 04:00 UTC on 3 August, the key point is not where ETH finishes the day, but whether the quoted price crossed the stated level before that deadline.

For context, short-dated ETH price markets often trade more on intraday spikes than on monthly averages. On Robinhood’s live event page, the nearest August 2026 ETH price thresholds were already priced very unevenly, with **$1,810 or above** at 88¢, **$1,850 or above** at 40¢, and **$1,890 or above** at 6¢, showing how quickly odds can collapse as the strike moves higher[3]. That broad shape is consistent with published August 2026 forecast ranges from some analysts, which cluster roughly in the low-to-mid $2,000s, but with wide dispersion across models[1][2][11][13]. A 0% crowd-implied YES probability therefore suggests traders currently see the target as outside the market’s expected range, not that it is impossible.

The main catalysts to watch are exchange volatility, macro risk sentiment, and any Ethereum-specific news that can move spot prices within hours. Recent commentary has pointed to weak trading volume and a cautious recovery at the start of August, which matters because thin liquidity can make breakouts harder to sustain[4]. Traders should also watch for scheduled network updates, ETF flow headlines, and broader crypto-market moves, since Ethereum often tracks Bitcoin-led risk appetite and can overshoot on short bursts of demand or selling[4][19].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track What price will Ethereum hit on August 2? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.