What price will Bitcoin hit on June 9?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 9 June 2026, Bitcoin will either reach a specific price threshold (the exact figure is not disclosed in the market title) or it will not. In a prediction market, traders buy YES or NO shares. A YES share pays out if the event occurs; a NO share pays out if it does not. The current crowd-implied probability of 1% suggests traders believe the outcome is highly unlikely, meaning the market is pricing in either an extremely bullish or bearish move—depending on which direction the undisclosed price target lies.

Bitcoin's historical volatility offers context for reading this probability. Over the past five years, Bitcoin has experienced multiple 20–30% swings within single months, yet moves exceeding 50% in a defined 24-hour window remain rare. The 1% probability reflects the statistical rarity of extreme price movements rather than impossibility. In June 2021, for instance, Bitcoin fell from $64,000 to $30,000 over weeks, not hours. Traders assessing this market should consider whether the target price sits within historical precedent or requires conditions that have occurred fewer than once per decade.

Key catalysts to monitor include regulatory announcements from the US Securities and Exchange Commission, major institutional adoption news, and macroeconomic shifts in interest rates or inflation expectations. Bitcoin's price on any given day also responds to spot exchange-traded fund flows, mining difficulty adjustments, and geopolitical events affecting risk appetite. The settlement window closes on 10 June 2026 at 04:00 UTC, meaning the price snapshot will be taken at a specific moment rather than averaged across the day.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.