What price will Bitcoin hit on May 19?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin’s price will be fixed by the market’s reference index at the settlement time on 19 May, and a YES share pays out if the chosen threshold is reached or exceeded at that point. In prediction-market terms, the contract is a binary bet on a specific price event rather than on Bitcoin’s direction over the day. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders see the threshold as effectively out of reach by expiry, but these markets can move sharply if spot prices approach the strike near settlement.

That reading sits against a year of wide swings. Bitcoin hit a 2026 high of about $97,860 in January and a low near $60,074 in February, with prices later recovering into the high-$70,000s by mid-May, according to SoFi and Statista. Robinhood’s related May 19 market showed $76,700 or above priced at 99¢, while Coinbase’s May 19 contract for $70,000 or above was also around 99%, which indicates the market had already treated sub-$70,000 levels as very unlikely by the time these contracts were nearing expiry.

Traders should watch the main spot drivers rather than just crypto headlines: US macro data, Federal Reserve expectations, ETF flows, and any regulatory or exchange-related announcements. Because the settlement window ends at 04:00 UTC on 20 May, late moves in US trading hours can matter, especially if Bitcoin is drifting close to a listed strike. The contract settles from CF Benchmarks’ real-time index, so the relevant question is where the index prints around the final minute, not the widest intraday move.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track What price will Bitcoin hit on May 19? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.