Will Anthropic’s valuation hit … by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Anthropic’s valuation would have to hit the market’s strike level in an NPM price print before 31 December 2026 for a **YES** share to pay out; if it does not, the share settles **NO**. In practical terms, one share is a claim on whether the reported private-market valuation reaches the listed threshold, and this market uses Nasdaq Private Market’s once-daily published NPM Price, not rumours or informal secondary trades.

The main frame for reading the current 14% implied probability is that Anthropic is already a very large private company by recent fundraising standards, but the gap to the market’s upper strikes remains wide. Reuters reported in May that Anthropic closed a $65 billion funding round at a $965 billion valuation, while Reuters and Anthropic both reported an earlier February round at $380 billion, showing how quickly the company’s private mark has moved in 2026.[2][9][14] Comparable prediction markets have been assigning high odds to lower milestones, with one market showing 93% for at least $1 trillion by year-end and 38% for $2.5 trillion, which helps explain why a much higher strike can still sit at a modest price.[1][8]

Traders should watch for new fundraising headlines, disclosed secondary transactions that NPM may treat differently from primary rounds, and any IPO-related pricing guidance, because those are the events most likely to reset the reported valuation. NPM prices are published only on trading days and updated the following afternoon, so the timing of news matters as much as the news itself.[1] Recent reporting has already pointed to continued investor interest at higher levels, including Reuters’ coverage of the $965 billion round and earlier CNBC reporting on a term sheet near $350 billion, which together show that the key driver is not product launch cadence but whether fresh capital arrives at a materially higher price.[9][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.