Dota 2: Aurora vs GamerLegion (BO3) - The International Group Stage

Platform comparison

Market context

Aurora and GamerLegion will face off in a best-of-three Dota 2 match during the group stage of The International, the annual world championship organised by Valve. The fixture is scheduled for 13 August 2026 at 01:00 ET. In prediction markets, a YES share represents a bet that Aurora will win; a NO share bets on GamerLegion's victory. The settlement window closes at 12:10 UTC on the same day, allowing roughly eleven hours after the scheduled start for the match to conclude and be officially recorded.

The 100% implied probability reflects that the match is scheduled to take place with both teams confirmed as participants. Historical precedent from The International's group stages shows that cancellations or indefinite delays are rare; matches typically proceed unless a team withdraws entirely or a force majeure event prevents the event itself. However, this extreme probability also suggests the market has not yet priced in team-specific form, recent roster changes, or patch updates that could affect competitive viability. GamerLegion and Aurora's recent performance in qualifying tournaments and their head-to-head record would normally anchor expectations, but such data appears absent from current pricing.

Traders should monitor official announcements from The International organisers regarding schedule confirmations, any last-minute roster substitutions, or technical issues affecting the broadcast infrastructure. Patch notes released immediately before the group stage can shift matchup dynamics substantially. The settlement window's tight seven-day cancellation clause means that even minor delays could trigger a 50-50 resolution if no winner is determined within that period, though this outcome remains unlikely given Valve's track record of completing scheduled fixtures.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.