LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs FURIA Esports (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season

Platform comparison

Market context

Vivo Keyd Stars and FURIA Esports are due to meet in a best-of-three CBLOL regular-season series, and this market pays on the match winner: a **YES** share on Vivo Keyd Stars resolves if Vivo Keyd Stars win, while a **NO** share resolves if FURIA win. If the series is not completed in a way that produces a winner, the market rules fall back to 50-50, so traders are not only pricing form but also the risk that the scheduled match does not finish normally.

The current crowd-implied probability of 48% suggests a slight lean away from Vivo Keyd Stars, which fits a fairly even rivalry rather than a dominant favourite. Recent head-to-head records are mixed: one source shows Vivo Keyd Stars leading the broader series 13-11, while another match log highlights FURIA winning four of the last five meetings, including a 2-0 in April 2026 and a 1-0 in February 2026.[1][6][8] That is useful for new readers of prediction markets: a price near 50% usually means the market sees both sides as live, with recent results often weighing more heavily than older history.

The main catalysts are basic but important: line-up confirmation, whether the series starts on time, and whether any schedule change affects completion before the settlement window closes on 2026-08-01T22:00:00Z. The official LoL Esports schedule is the cleanest place to verify whether the fixture remains on the day’s agenda, while match trackers such as SofaScore and Bo3.gg are useful for live status and final score confirmation.[5][6][19] If there is a postponement, reschedule, or abandonment, that matters as much as the in-game form because the contract explicitly treats non-standard outcomes differently from a completed series.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.