Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-2.5) vs Gentle Mates (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-3.5) vs Gentle Mates (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-4.5) vs Gentle Mates (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-5.5) vs Gentle Mates (+5.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-2.5) vs BBL Esports (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-7.5) vs Gentle Mates (+7.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-6.5) vs Gentle Mates (+6.5) | 100% |
| Match Winner | 55% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-2.5) vs Gentle Mates (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 1% |
| Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs BBL Esports (+1.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-3.5) vs Gentle Mates (+3.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-2.5) vs BBL Esports (+2.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-4.5) vs Gentle Mates (+4.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-5.5) vs Gentle Mates (+5.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-6.5) vs Gentle Mates (+6.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-8.5) vs Gentle Mates (+8.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: BBL (-1.5) vs Gentle Mates (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-2.5) vs Gentle Mates (+2.5) | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, valorant: bbl esports vs gentle mates (bo3) - vct emea group alpha stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Valorant match between BBL Esports and Gentle Mates in the VCT EMEA Group Alpha, initially scheduled for July 31 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve …
Methodology
We track Valorant: BBL Esports vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Valorant: BBL Esports vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT EM… on Prediction Market UK
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