Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Team Secret (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: T1 (-4.5) vs Team Secret (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: T1 (-4.5) vs Team Secret (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: T1 (-3.5) vs Team Secret (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: T1 (-3.5) vs Team Secret (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Secret (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 51% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: T1 (-4.5) vs Team Secret (+4.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: T1 (-3.5) vs Team Secret (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
Market context
Team Secret and T1 will compete in a best-of-three Valorant match on 25 July 2026 as part of the VCT Pacific Group Omega stage. The market currently implies a 22% probability that Team Secret wins, meaning a £1 YES share would pay £4.55 if Team Secret take the series. Conversely, a NO share reflects the 78% implied probability favouring T1. Settlement occurs at 16:45 UTC on 25 July, with a seven-day grace period for completion; matches extending beyond that window or cancelled outright resolve to an even split.
T1 have historically dominated regional competition in the Pacific region, consistently ranking amongst the top seeds in VCT tournaments. Team Secret, whilst competitive, have typically finished lower in seeding brackets during comparable group stages. The 22% probability assigned to Team Secret reflects this performance gap, though upsets remain possible in best-of-three formats where map selection and preparation can create tactical advantages. Recent VCT Pacific results suggest T1's consistency in closing series against mid-tier opponents.
Traders should monitor roster announcements or last-minute substitutions in the days preceding the match, as player availability directly affects preparation depth. Venue or scheduling changes affecting the 7:00 AM ET start time could influence team readiness. The VCT Pacific official schedule and team social media accounts typically confirm final lineups 24–48 hours before play. Any technical issues during the broadcast that delay completion beyond the seven-day window would trigger the 50-50 resolution clause, though this remains a low-probability event given Riot's infrastructure standards.
Methodology
This page reviews Valorant: Team Secret vs T1 (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Omega across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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