US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is a written U.S.-Iran diplomatic instrument that must be mutually signed or formally adopted by the deadline; in practice, a **YES** share wins only if that final deal exists on paper by 11:59 PM ET on 31 August 2026, while **NO** wins if the talks stall or produce only an incomplete framework. In prediction markets, the crowd-implied probability is simply the market’s collective estimate of that outcome, and a 1% YES price says traders see a completed, qualifying instrument as very unlikely at present.

The main reference point is the June 2026 framework: AP reported that the deal signed on 17 June began a 60-day negotiating clock for a final agreement, while Reuters said a final accord would be discussed within those 60 days and set out nuclear limits, sanctions relief and asset releases.[1][4] That matters because this market is not about whether talks continue, but whether they end in a qualifying written instrument before the deadline. Comparable nuclear negotiations have often produced interim memoranda, phased commitments and technical working groups before any final text, which usually lowers the odds of a quick settlement if core issues such as enrichment limits, inspections and sanctions relief remain unresolved.[3][6]

Traders should watch for any announcement of a signed text, a formal adoption by both governments, or a confirmed Geneva-style meeting that turns the framework into binding language.[3][4] Reuters also noted that the memorandum would hold for 60 days before a final agreement, implying that the calendar itself is a key catalyst; if either side delays implementation, adds new conditions, or ties the nuclear track to regional security issues such as Lebanon or the Strait of Hormuz, the probability of a final deal by late August falls.[2][4][8] News flow on inspections, frozen assets, and sanctions waivers is especially important because those are the parts most likely to determine whether a draft becomes a signed instrument or remains a provisional arrangement.[1][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.