US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

A **YES** share pays out if the United States and Iran announce an official diplomatic agreement, by the deadline, that sets out concrete commitments to permit, restore or increase shipping through the Strait of Hormuz; a **NO** share pays if no such agreement is announced. In plain terms, the market is asking whether words, signatures and formal obligations appear on time, not whether traffic merely improves informally or on a temporary basis.

The current 61% implied probability sits in a space where traders are balancing an existing June framework against repeated signs that the process remains incomplete. Reuters reported that the two sides concluded technical talks in early July with no clear breakthrough, while later coverage said the status of negotiations was still uncertain after fresh attacks on shipping and conflicting public statements from Washington and Tehran[2][1]. That is the key historical frame: markets often price a substantial chance when a framework or memorandum already exists, but still discount outcomes when both sides publicly dispute whether final talks are even under way[5][16].

Catalysts to watch are formal announcements, not just media hints: a signed communiqué, joint statement, treaty text, or ministerial read-out that explicitly covers Hormuz traffic and Iranian obligations. Recent reporting suggests negotiations may still be moving through intermediaries, with Iran’s foreign minister calling talks with Oman “final stages” even as Tehran publicly denied that US-Iran negotiations were happening[6][1]. Any scheduled signing, cabinet approval, or follow-up technical session matters because the market’s wording appears to require a qualifying diplomatic instrument, not simply a ceasefire, de-escalation, or verbal assurance[9][17].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.