Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

A “YES” share pays out only if Iran’s current ruling system is judged to have fallen before 30 June 2026, meaning the core institutions of the Islamic Republic have been overthrown, collapsed, or lost effective control. A “NO” share pays if that does not happen. At 5% implied probability, traders are saying a rapid regime break is possible but still far from the base case, especially because this market requires more than unrest, strikes, or a leadership shuffle: it needs a broad consensus that the state itself has ceased to govern.

Historically, regimes tend to fall in this sort of market only when multiple pillars fail at once: the top leadership, the security forces, and the administrative apparatus. Iran has faced severe pressure before, including mass protests and sanctions, yet the system has usually held because the IRGC, clerical institutions, and local security networks remained functional. Recent reporting from the Institute for the Study of War says Iran’s leadership is preparing for possible protest waves amid economic deterioration, but also notes the security apparatus still has the capacity to control domestic dissent. That distinction matters: pressure and instability can rise without meeting the settlement standard.

The main catalysts to watch are any verified change in Supreme Leader succession, defections inside the IRGC or Basij, and signs that state media, command chains, or provincial authorities are no longer obeying Tehran. Traders will also watch whether renewed diplomacy or a ceasefire reduces the odds of further strikes, because escalation could either weaken the regime or, just as often, rally coercive institutions around it. ISW’s April report also noted Iranian negotiators were pushing terms that preserve regime leverage, including over the Strait of Hormuz, which suggests the authorities are still bargaining from a position of state continuity rather than collapse.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.