Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Platform comparison

Market context

Israel’s 2026 parliamentary election will decide who is *actually sworn in* as prime minister afterwards, not merely who leads in polls or is expected to negotiate a coalition. In this market, a **YES** share pays out if the named candidate becomes the next person formally appointed and sworn in as prime minister after the election; a **NO** share wins if they do not. Because Israel’s system requires a Knesset majority and a coalition-building process after the vote, the result depends on both seat totals and post-election bargaining, not just the strongest headline polling figure.[10]

The current 33% crowd-implied probability suggests traders see a competitive but unsettled contest rather than a clear favourite. That fits the recent pattern: Reuters reported in June that former military chief Gadi Eisenkot was surging in polls and had a realistic path to ousting Benjamin Netanyahu, while other coverage has still treated Netanyahu as the baseline incumbent and noted continued support for other challengers such as Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Liberman.[13][17][9] Comparable markets in recent months have also moved quickly as polling and party alliances shifted, which matters because a small change in seat projections can alter who is first asked to form a government.[2][12]

The main catalysts to watch are the election date, any early-election call, and the post-vote coalition sequence: who the president nominates, which bloc can assemble a majority, and whether the nominee can secure a confidence vote and be sworn in.[10] Campaign announcements, alliance talks, and late polling matter because they can change the list of viable governing combinations. Reuters’ June coverage also noted Eisenkot’s rise specifically in the context of a coming election challenge, underlining how quickly candidate credibility can be repriced as the race develops.[13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.