Iran charges Hormuz fees by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

A **Yes** share pays out if Iran officially announces and starts collecting a mandatory fee, toll, charge, tariff or similar payment from commercial vessels for passage through the Strait of Hormuz before the deadline; a **No** share wins if there is no such formal, generalised charge in force. In practical terms, the market is about whether Tehran moves from rhetoric or ad hoc demands to a publicly announced policy that applies to ships as a rule, rather than a one-off payment or isolated screening cost. [1][2][7]

Recent reporting makes the baseline unusually high, but also shows why the market can stay below certainty. Bloomberg said in March that Iran had begun charging some commercial vessels on an ad hoc basis, with payments of up to $2 million per voyage, yet the mechanism was not systematic[1]. Reuters later reported that Iran was discussing fees as part of a broader passage arrangement, while also noting the legal objection that coastal states cannot charge simply for transit through an international strait[7][11][14]. That split matters for prediction markets: traders usually distinguish between informal extraction, service fees, and a formal tariff regime that is clearly announced and broadly applied.

The main catalysts are official statements from Iran’s foreign ministry, maritime authorities, or parliament, plus any memorandum with Oman or the US that sets a fee schedule or begins collection. Reuters reported on 6 August that fee discussions were still active, with Tehran seeking 5%–7% of cargo value, Oman discussing around 3%, and Washington opposing any fee at all[11]. Watch for whether any arrangement is described as voluntary or service-based, because this market only resolves **Yes** if the charge is mandatory for passage or access, not if it is framed as optional or merely compensatory. [2][4][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

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Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

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