Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by 2026?

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Market context

Kharg Island is Iran’s main oil export terminal, so a Yes share here pays out only if another state or internationally backed authority is actually running the island by the market deadline. A No share wins if Iranian authorities still exercise primary military or governmental control, even if the island is hit, blockaded, or temporarily disrupted. In other words, airstrikes, raids, or short-lived interference do not count unless they lead to a durable transfer of control.

The probability is being priced against a very high bar. Kharg has long been treated as one of Iran’s most sensitive assets because it handles the bulk of the country’s crude exports, making it a key military and economic target. But comparable cases show that attacking a strategic facility is not the same as taking it over: control changes usually require sustained occupation, a formal handover, or a collapse of local governance. That is why markets often keep a very low Yes price unless there is evidence of ground control, not just escalation.

Traders would watch for any public statement claiming an occupation, a ceasefire deal that includes island administration, or reports of an evacuation followed by foreign troop presence. Recent coverage has highlighted Kharg’s concentration risk and strategic importance, including TRT World and the Jerusalem Post, while Britannica notes its role as the terminal for nearly all Iranian oil exports. Any changes in naval activity around the northern Persian Gulf matter mainly as signals of pressure; by themselves, they would not satisfy the market’s control شرط.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

We track Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by 2026? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.