What will be the top US Netflix show this week?

Platform comparison

Market context

This market tracks the real-world event where Netflix publishes its official US Top 10 list on Tuesday, 21 July 2026, at 3:00 PM ET. The list reflects viewership from the previous Monday to Sunday, and the show ranked number one determines the outcome. In prediction markets, a YES share wins if that specific show tops the list, while a NO share wins if any other show does. With the crowd currently implying only a 2% chance for YES, the market heavily favours an alternative outcome.

Historically, new releases dominating the first week of a month often surge to the top spot, yet established hits frequently retain dominance if a major competitor is absent. Recent data shows that titles like *I Will Find You* have topped lists shortly after release, but the 2% probability suggests traders doubt any single show will outperform the current incumbent this week. Comparable cases from mid-2025 indicate that without a blockbuster premiere in the viewing window, the top spot often remains with a long-running series rather than a new entry.

Traders should monitor the release schedule for *Ransom Canyon* season 2, which streams on 23 July, meaning it falls outside this settlement window, and *The Hawk*, released on 16 July, which is the primary new contender for the top rank [3][4]. The critical dependency is the timely update of top10.netflix.com; if this does not occur by 24 July, the market resolves to "Other" regardless of viewership. No major announcements have yet confirmed a surprise premiere that would disrupt the current low probability for the specific show in question [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews What will be the top US Netflix show this week? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.