Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is whether commercial ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz gets back to a 7-day average of at least 60 tracked arrivals by 30 September 2026, which is roughly the level associated with normal conditions in the market definition. In practical terms, a **YES** share pays out if IMF Portwatch publishes that average at or above 60 on any date before expiry; a **NO** share pays if it never does. Because the benchmark is a published moving average, the market is about sustained recovery in measured traffic, not a one-day spike.

The current 22% YES probability implies traders think a full normalisation is more likely to fail than succeed, and that lines up with the history of the year so far. Reuters reported in late June that crude shipments through Hormuz had risen to their highest since the conflict began, but a second Reuters update on 9 July said tanker traffic was again at a near standstill after renewed strikes and retaliation in the Gulf.[4][5] Earlier Reuters reporting also described repeated disruption, including tankers turning back and traffic remaining muted despite ceasefire talk.[3] For readers new to prediction markets, that means the price is effectively weighing the odds that transit data can climb and stay elevated long enough to lift the 7-day average above the threshold.

The main catalysts are security conditions, any US-Iran or regional ceasefire enforcement, and whether shipping firms feel safe enough to resume routine transits. Reuters has already shown how quickly the data can swing when the political or military backdrop changes, with flows improving after a ceasefire in June and then weakening again after fresh attacks in July.[4][5] Traders will also watch whether Portwatch’s measured series begins to include more tankers, container ships and bulk carriers, because the settlement rule only counts ships that are actually reported in that dataset.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.