Colombia Presidential Election

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Colombia votes for a new president on 31 May, with a possible run-off on 21 June if no one wins outright. In a prediction market, a YES share pays out if the named outcome happens; a NO share pays if it does not. The current 0% YES price signals that the market is treating the listed candidate as effectively not yet resolved, rather than implying the race is settled. That matters here because the contract includes any second round, so the winning candidate is only known once the official certified result is clear.

Past Colombian presidential races have often gone to a second round when the first round is fragmented, especially when the leading candidate falls short of 50%. That is the main lens for reading the current setup: a strong first-round lead does not guarantee victory if anti-front-runner voters coalesce in the runoff. Recent polling has put Iván Cepeda ahead in the first round, but not always by enough to avoid a second ballot. Invamer’s latest cited survey had Cepeda on 31.9%, ahead of Abelardo de la Espriella on 18.2% and Sergio Fajardo on 8.5%, while a projected runoff still showed a narrower contest than the first-round numbers suggest. Americas Quarterly reported that Cepeda leads most major polls, with conservative rivals contesting the place in a likely runoff.

The main catalysts are the final campaign period, late polling, and any official changes to alliances or endorsements before 31 May. Watch whether the first-round vote produces a clear winner or sends the race to 21 June, since the market resolves on the final certified victor, not the first-round plurality. Candidate positioning among the right-of-centre challengers also matters, because recent reporting suggests the runoff field is still fluid. If counting is close or disputed, resolution depends on the certified result from the electoral authorities rather than early projections.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Colombia Presidential Election across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.