Daegu Mayoral Election Winner

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Daegu will elect a new mayor on 3 June, and this market pays out on the winner of that vote. A YES share means the named outcome happens; a NO share means it does not. Because the settlement depends on the official result, temporary or acting mayors do not count. With the crowd currently at 0% YES, the market is effectively saying the named outcome is viewed as not yet viable, not impossible.

Daegu is a useful place to read Korean local politics because it is one of the strongest conservative strongholds in the country, so the People Power Party often starts with a structural advantage there. That said, local races can still tighten when candidate selection is delayed or when rivals manage to consolidate an anti-incumbent vote. Recent reporting has already shown the nomination process moving: Choo Kyung-ho was selected as the PPP candidate on 26 April, while the opposition Democratic Party has also been active in fielding contenders, according to the Korea Times. In prediction markets, a near-zero price usually reflects either missing information or an expectation that the market’s reference outcome is unlikely under current candidate line-ups.

The main catalysts are the final candidate list, campaign momentum, and any late changes to eligibility or ballot access. Traders should watch official registration, polling-day turnout signals, and whether the race settles into a straightforward two-party contest or fragments into a closer three-way race, as local media and broadcaster coverage have suggested may be possible. If results are delayed, the market still resolves by consensus reporting, and if needed by the National Election Commission’s official announcement, with a fallback to “Other” only if the result remains unknown by the long-stop date.

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Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.