Iran leadership change by 2026?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Mojtaba Khamenei is now the Supreme Leader of Iran, and this market asks whether he will cease to be the de facto leader before the end of 2026. In prediction-market terms, a YES share pays out if he is removed, detained, resigns, or otherwise loses the ability to act as Iran’s top decision-maker; a NO share pays out if he remains in place through the settlement window. With crowd-implied probability at 0%, the market is currently pricing in a very stable succession outcome.

The closest historical comparison is Iran’s own leadership transitions, which are rare and usually tightly managed by the Assembly of Experts and other elite bodies rather than by open contests. Reuters and other recent reporting around the 2026 succession has stressed both the unusual dynastic element of Mojtaba’s appointment and the heavy centralisation of power around the office itself. That means the main question is not whether the role is powerful, but whether any event could interrupt his control before 31 December 2026: internal elite pushback, a health crisis, arrest, or a broader collapse in the chain of command.

Traders should watch for official statements from the Office of the Supreme Leader, Assembly of Experts activity, and any sign that Mojtaba is delegating authority in a way that suggests weakness rather than continuity. News about sanctions, domestic unrest, or military escalation can matter only if it is linked to his personal position, since the market needs him to lose de facto control, not merely face criticism. Recent coverage from outlets such as Anadolu and Stimson has focused on his first months in office and the extent of elite backing, both of which are the key signals to follow for any change before year-end.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.