Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The deal at issue is a **second-stage agreement** after the first ceasefire phase: if Israel and Hamas publicly announce that they have mutually agreed the next phase, the market resolves **YES**; if no such agreement is announced before settlement, it resolves **NO**. That matters because prediction markets price the chance of a specific event, not a vague sense that talks are “moving forward”.

A **65% YES** price implies traders think a deal is more likely than not, but still far from certain. That kind of probability is often seen when the first phase has already created a framework, yet the hardest issues remain unresolved. In this case, the sticking points are the ones that usually break ceasefire talks: Hamas disarmament, further Israeli withdrawal, and the shape of Gaza’s future security and governance. Recent reporting has described second-phase negotiations as stalled or making “no progress”, with Israel tying further movement to disarmament and Hamas insisting the first phase be fully implemented first.[1][3][7][10]

For traders, the main catalysts are official statements from Israel, Hamas, the United States, and the Cairo mediators, plus any announced resumption dates for talks. News flow also matters around hostage returns, troop movements, and any public shift on whether disarmament is being discussed as a freeze, a transition, or a full handover.[1][4][14][15] If mediators announce a concrete negotiating round or issue language that both sides have accepted in writing, that is the clearest signal for a YES outcome; if talks remain conditional, delayed, or tied to first-phase compliance, the market will tend to price a lower chance of resolution.[2][3][7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by 2026? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.