Starmer out by 2025?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The event here is whether Keir Starmer ceases to be Prime Minister during the market’s resolution window. A “Yes” share pays out if he is out of office for any period between 2 February and 31 December 2025; a “No” share pays out if he remains in post throughout that period. Because the market also resolves to Yes on a resignation or removal announcement, traders are not just pricing the formal handover, but the moment the departure becomes public.

A 0% YES price implies the market sees Starmer’s exit inside that window as extremely unlikely. That is a strong reading, but prediction markets can move sharply on leadership crises, cabinet resignations, or signs of an organised challenge. Comparable UK leadership markets tend to stay near zero until a real trigger appears, then reprice quickly on credible reporting rather than slow political drift. In other words, the quoted probability is less a broad judgement on Starmer’s popularity than a snapshot of whether traders think a decisive break is actually imminent.

The main catalysts are straightforward: any resignation statement from Starmer, confirmation from Downing Street or the government, a leadership contest, or sustained credible reporting that he is being forced out. Upcoming parliamentary dates, party meetings, and major policy or fiscal announcements can matter if they create pressure on Labour MPs or the Cabinet. Recent reporting has already linked leadership speculation with market moves and gilt volatility, with analysts noting that rumours of instability can affect sterling and government borrowing costs before any formal change occurs.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.