Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly one-third of global seaborne petroleum trade. When geopolitical tension, military action, or shipping disruptions reduce transit volumes, the 7-day moving average of daily vessel arrivals—tracked by the International Monetary Fund's Portwatch system—falls below historical norms. This market asks whether that average will recover to 60 or above by mid-July 2026, a threshold that reflects pre-disruption baseline traffic. A YES share pays out if IMF Portwatch publishes such a reading at any point before the settlement date; a NO share wins if the average remains below 60 throughout the period.

The 54% crowd probability reflects genuine uncertainty about the timeline for normalisation. Between 2019 and 2022, the Strait saw several episodes of reduced traffic following tanker attacks, drone strikes, and sanctions escalation, with recovery periods ranging from weeks to months depending on the trigger. Recent comparable disruptions—such as the Red Sea shipping reroutes of 2023–2024—took between three and six months to substantially reverse, though those involved alternative routing rather than Hormuz closure. The current implied probability suggests traders view a return to 60+ daily transits as roughly even odds, pricing in both the possibility of swift de-escalation and the risk of prolonged friction.

Traders monitoring this market should track announcements from the US, Iran, and regional naval forces, as well as OPEC production statements and insurance premium shifts for Hormuz passages. Any formal ceasefire agreement, sanctions relief, or explicit security guarantees would likely accelerate recovery. Conversely, fresh military incidents or tightened export controls could extend the disruption window well past July 2026. IMF Portwatch publishes its data weekly, so the resolution trigger could arrive suddenly once conditions stabilise.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.