Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships are currently unable to pass freely through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint carrying roughly 20% of the world’s oil, due to an ongoing conflict between Iran and the United States. In a prediction market, a YES share pays out if the market resolves to “Yes” (traffic returns to normal by 31 July 2026), while a NO share pays out if it resolves to “No”. This specific market hinges on IMF Portwatch publishing a 7-day moving average of at least 60 daily transit calls for any date before the settlement deadline.

Historical patterns suggest the current 14% crowd-implied probability is grounded in reality. Traffic dropped to near-standstill levels in April 2026, with only 14 vessels crossing on 8–9 April, and the strait briefly reopened on 21 April before closing again the next day [1][2]. Although a US–Iran agreement finalized on 17 June mandates immediate commercial navigation, industry analysts report that shipping companies remain cautious and traffic has not yet returned to pre-war levels [4][5]. The strait is still officially closed, with commercial shipping suspended [2].

Traders should monitor the US naval blockade lift deadline of 19 July, a key dependency in the memorandum of understanding that requires Iran to restore traffic by the same date [4]. Any delay in lifting the blockade or failure by Iran to exert its “best efforts” to normalise flows will likely keep the market in the “No” zone. Recent data confirms that vessel movements remain well below the 60-call threshold required for resolution, with typical daily counts hovering between 10 and 15 ships [6]. Without a rapid escalation in transit volume before the end of July, the probability of a YES outcome remains low.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.