Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Texas Republicans are choosing their nominee for the US Senate seat held by John Cornyn, with the runoff set for 26 May after no candidate won a majority in the March primary. In a prediction market, a “YES” share pays out if the named outcome happens, while a “NO” share pays out if it does not; here, that means whether the Republican primary is won by the candidate the market specifies, or whether the result falls to “Other” if no primary takes place. The immediate contest is between Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, after third-place finisher Wesley Hunt and the other candidates were eliminated from the runoff.

The March vote is the main guide to how to read any live probability. Cornyn led narrowly with about 42% to Paxton’s 40.5%, which showed a closely divided Republican electorate rather than a clear front-runner. Trump’s endorsement of Paxton on 19 May is the biggest recent political catalyst and may matter because it can shift late-deciding conservative voters in a low-turnout runoff. In comparable Senate runoffs, the final result often turns on base turnout and whether endorsements translate into actual votes rather than headlines.

Traders should watch for the Texas GOP’s first official announcement of the runoff result, since the market resolves on that, although overwhelming credible reporting may be enough if the party is slow to publish. Also relevant are turnout signals on election night, any delays in canvassing, and whether the race is called quickly or remains contested by a margin small enough to invite scrutiny. The settlement window closes on 26 May, so timing around polling place closure and result releases is central to how the market may move.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.