TN-05 Republican Primary Winner

Platform comparison

Market context

The Republican nominee for Tennessee’s 5th Congressional District is decided by the primary on 6 August 2026, and in this market a **Yes** share pays out if the named candidate wins that nomination, while a **No** share pays out if that candidate does not. The contract also notes that if no nominee is announced by 3 November 2026, the result is **Other**, and the resolution source is an official Republican consensus rather than media reporting alone.

A current crowd-implied probability of **100% Yes** indicates near-unanimous market confidence, but that should be read in context: on 20 July, Axios reported betting odds had tightened between incumbent Andy Ogles and challenger Charlie Hatcher, with Ogles still ahead but no longer in a lopsided position.[5] Earlier market snapshots showed a sharper lead for Ogles, including a 94% to 5% split in one odds tracker and an 88% to 16% spread in another, which suggests sentiment has moved materially over the campaign period even if the latest price on this market is now at the extreme end.[2][4]

For traders, the main catalysts are straightforward: candidate filings, endorsements, campaign withdrawals, and the official primary result itself. Because this contract settles on the Republican nominee for TN-05, later changes in who ultimately runs in the general election do not alter the market’s outcome under the rules. With the primary scheduled for 6 August 2026, the key dependency is whether the Republican Party officially confirms a nominee before the November backstop; if it does, that official result should control settlement.[4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.