Who will enter Iran by June 30?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event at the heart of this market is whether a named individual will physically enter Iran’s territory before the end of June 2026. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the event occurs, while a NO share pays out if it does not. Here, the crowd-implied probability sits at 0% YES, suggesting traders believe no such visit will happen. This reflects a high bar for entry, given Iran’s current geopolitical isolation and the ongoing military tensions that began in February 2026.

Historically, foreign leaders have rarely visited Iran during periods of active conflict. For example, Iranian President Pezeshkian’s recent trip to Pakistan was his first international journey since the US and Israel launched military actions against Iran in late February [1]. Comparable cases, such as the delayed US–Iran talks in Switzerland involving Vice President Vance, show that even diplomatic overtures face significant delays or cancellations amid uncertainty [2][4]. These patterns help explain why the market currently assigns near-zero odds to a visit.

Traders should monitor official travel announcements, diplomatic schedules, and any breakthroughs in the stalled nuclear negotiations. Recent reports confirm that US envoys, including Steve Witkoff, are heading to Switzerland for talks with Iran’s foreign minister, though Vance’s participation remains uncertain [2][3]. Any sudden shift in these negotiations or a confirmed state visit could dramatically alter the market’s outlook. With settlement ending on 30 June 2026, the window for such developments is narrow but not closed.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.