Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

A Yes share pays out if the US begins a military offensive intended to establish control over any part of Iran before the end of 2026; a No share pays out if it does not. That is a higher bar than air strikes or isolated retaliation: the market needs credible evidence of an invasion-style operation aimed at taking and holding territory, not just bombardment or covert action. The current 26% price suggests traders see meaningful escalation risk, but still treat a full-scale ground offensive as less likely than limited strikes or deterrent posturing.

Past US conflicts help frame that odds. Washington has used large force build-ups, carrier groups and air campaigns many times without crossing into territorial occupation, while actual invasions have usually followed clearer political decisions and public casus belli. Iran is also a difficult target for any occupation attempt because of its size, terrain, missile forces and likely retaliation against Gulf bases, shipping and energy infrastructure. That makes the market closer to a judgement on whether pressure and signalling turn into a deliberate campaign to seize ground, rather than on whether the US and Iran enter direct conflict.

For catalysts, watch formal US force orders, carrier and bomber movements, mobilisation of amphibious or ground units, and any public shift from airstrike threats to plans involving seizure of facilities or corridors. Recent reporting has pointed to a heavier US posture in the Middle East and recurring strike speculation, but that is still short of invasion mechanics. Reuters and defence trackers have noted the build-up of air and naval assets, while reports in January and February warned of possible US strikes, showing how quickly posture can change without implying an intent to occupy Iranian territory.

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Methodology

We track Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.